Earthquake | Earthquake Prediction | Research

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-11-19T08:21:18+01:00

You can come and visit my lab at south India. I will explain in detail.

In response to:Success in Prediction

2009-11-14T14:12:38+01:00

On today's 20th anniversary of the Loma Prieta earthquake, a magnitude 6.9 shocker that took seismologists at the U.S. Geological Survey completely by surprise, that elusive prize of an adequate early warning system is nearly within reach.

Earthquake early warning — a system that could have provided up to 15 seconds of advance notice to Oakland before the Loma Prieta quake killed 42 people there — has just begun a final round of tests in the Bay Area. If the system receives a costly round of state and federal funding, sensors buried deep in the Earth could start flashing nearly instant warnings to densely populated urban centers within three years.

When this safer city of the future arrives — assuming the warning system being devised by seismologists at three California universities and the USGS receives an additional $50 million for geophysical observation stations — its warnings could:

Stay the scalpel of a surgeon seconds before an earthquake rocks his — and his patient's — world.

Halt elevators at the nearest floor, so people in high-rises don't have to be rescued and can evacuate safely.

Slow Caltrain and BART trains to reduce the likelihood of derailments.

Switch freeway metering lights to red and activating alerts on message boards.

Broadcast an alert to your smart phone, locating you via the phone's GPS device, then using an application to tell you how soon the first stomach-churning jolt will hit, and what its magnitude will be.

Behind the curve

A system designed to do those things — plus perform less obvious tasks such as protecting the data at government offices and corporations by switching computers to safety mode — will begin real world testing here as soon as next year. Even so, it will lag behind similar systems already in use in Japan, Mexico, Turkey and Taipei.

In fact, Seismic Warning Systems, a small, privately held company in Scotts Valley, has already installed smaller, cheaper systems at Cisco Systems, the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and in many firehouses throughout the state. "In our preparedness review, we noted that if an earthquake were to occur, the likelihood was that the doors to the firehouse would jam," said Rocky Saunders, emergency services manager about a firehouse at the lab. "Now they'll pop open, and the water tanks automatically shut down to retain our potable water."

Saunders said the system has performed perfectly but only in simulations. A spokesman for Seismic Warning Systems said its on-site equipment performed flawlessly during the Alum Rock quake — a magnitude 5.6 shaker — in 2007.

"At the beginning of this project, it's fair to say that most people didn't think early warning was technically feasible in California," said University of California-Berkeley seismology professor Richard Allen, principal architect of the far-larger USGS network. "The question now is to what extent it could be useful. How would you take advantage of those few seconds of warning?"

Who gets the alarm?

Those precious seconds represent the gap between primary, or P-waves — the seismic forerunners that alert animals to earthquakes before humans feel anything — fluttering almost imperceptibly through soil and bedrock at a rate 1.8 times faster than secondary, or S-waves. It's those slower-moving S-waves that topple buildings, burst gas mains and snap bridges like tinker toys.

For every five miles a P-wave travels from the earthquake's epicenter, it provides one second of warning time. The debate becomes: Where should alarms be heard? And by how many people? Allen said training on a massive scale is "crucial" to the success of the government-funded system. "You have to train people with a very simple response," he said, "such as, 'Earthquake! Get under a table.' " The USGS system will gather information from more than 400 sensors scattered throughout California.

"We try to push the envelope as hard as we can," said David Oppenheimer, a seismologist at the USGS in Menlo Park. "I think that's what the public expects us to do." But there's a daunting problem: An early warning system will cost $50 million to $80 million to install, and millions more each year to maintain.

"California is dead broke, so they're not going to be able to fund the system," said Mike Price, chief technology officer of Seismic Warning Systems and a sharp critic of the USGS program. "What they're building is a massive, government-centric research project. At the moment they're nowhere."

Cheaper alternative

Seismic Warning Systems produces an on-site P-wave detector that performs many of the same functions that the larger system will execute, but without the big price tag. The company focuses on places where it can bring about what Price calls "consequential benefit." He is particularly scornful of Allen's idea of an iPhone application to alert the public that a quake is coming.

"This idea of producing an alert on a cell phone to the general public is a joke," he said. "We're focused on producing a reliable alert, not a toy. You're talking about AT&T's network, and they can barely do Web surfing reliably. We give you the maximum time possible to slow down a train, jump under a table or kiss your butt goodbye."

Both systems are designed to react so quickly that humans must be taken out of the data loop, creating the likelihood of false alarms that would needlessly panic the public.

Once the system is in place, it will be a little like the Doomsday Machine in the movie "Dr. Strangelove," acting on its own authority, based on algorithms that only machines can feel. Two months ago, the Microsoft Windows-based computers at the U.S. Department of Interior received a software patch, rebooted, then a distorted electronic handshake created a corrupted stream of data. The machines misinterpreted data from field instruments as a massive earthquake in Northern California. But this time, no alarm went out.

"Who would have thought Bill Gates could trigger an earthquake early warning message?" Oppenheimer said. "That's why we're trying to make sure it's reliable. The public has a very low tolerance for failure."

And even less tolerance for surprises.

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2009-11-12T10:46:45+01:00

Your really doing great!.I appreciate it. I will come back again soon...

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In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-11-12T05:09:59+01:00

Sir send me literature on how to predict earthquake in advance? Whether there are instruments? Please send me all literature.

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-10-23T13:55:02+02:00

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In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-10-22T12:41:48+02:00

there's been a rumor on another upcoming quake (approx. 8-8.5 magnitude) which will hit Jakarta on Saturday 24th 2009. any prediction from you?

thanks in advance.

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2009-10-16T13:49:46+02:00

here in west java region of indonesia, an earthquake with 6.5 RS happen about 5.30pm local time...i live in jakarta indonesia but i can feel the earthquake...i would like to know about your prediction of earthquake around indonesia on recent time or days..this is my email...wana_barbie@yahoo.co.uk..please send me the information

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-10-15T18:41:03+02:00

when will the earthquake hit the philippines? where? manila? mindanao? and what probable intensity?

thank you!

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-10-10T05:54:45+02:00

it has happened September 30th here in Padang, West Sumatera...

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-10-06T08:51:30+02:00

how about lampung province, sumatra island.. will earthquake occure here? coz some predictions said so..

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2009-10-06T08:01:08+02:00

dear dr. ananda nichalan

due to earthquake that occured in west sumatera, few days ago.. there are some resources predicted that a huge earthquake will shake my province, Lampung, Sumatera Island. Based on your research, what's your opinion about those prediction.. If the upcoming earthquake happens, where will it be the epicenter, when or will bandar lampung get the worst affect..

Thanks before..

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2009-10-01T16:35:59+02:00

Hi,

I see where you are going with this and would love to support you in whatever way i can...but i cant find any information on you or what you do besides loads of blog posts.

It would be nice be able to find some information about you and what you do.

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-09-25T04:04:05+02:00

u predicted abt bhutan's earthquake was found to be true.
there was 6.3 richter scale quake.

thnks for your work...
good job :)

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-09-21T20:20:07+02:00

Hi Ananda
I am very intrigued by how do you predict this movements, but any way I am from pisco.peru and would like to know when do u think another earthquake will hit again.. we are so afraid of anothr coming soon.. also would like to say that there are being small quakes during this last month. do u thing something really strong would happend soon...

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-08-07T07:02:58+02:00

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In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-08-02T19:44:09+02:00

First time commenting here.
i just want to point out something.
Is the IRIS seismic monitor a good source? if so check this out. aug / 2 / 2009 http://www.iris.edu/seismon/zoom/events/?lon=132.8573&lat=-0.5192

In response to:Success In Prediction

2009-07-25T01:44:41+02:00

I hope you are taken yourself not too seriously, coz I don't. I have to laugh about your reports. They are cute; it's a bit like the horoscopes, isn't it.

Well, I also have a prediction for earthquakes in Indonesia:

THERE WILL BE AROUND 160 EARTHQUAKES UNTIL THE END OF THIS YEAR WITH A MAGNITUTE OF 5.0 AND HIGHER. YOU MAY WORSHIP ME BY THE END OF THE YEAR...

Of course you (last) prediction was accurate; your region was the whole world except Europe, Russia and the North- and South pole. HAHAHAHA. Joker!

In response to:Another Earthquake Warning

2009-07-21T12:29:56+02:00

This is odd.
I have no background or connection to geology or the USGS or anybody who is,,, and for the last 3 weeks or so.... I have been collecting the hourly reports of EQ's in and around the Pacific Plate...sensing that the Cascadia Zone may be a point of concern...it is capable of producing a
Mega-thrust event of

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2009-07-16T02:17:50+02:00

நியூசிலாந்தில் கடும் நிலநடுக்கம் : சுனாமி எச்சரிக்கை விடப்பட்டது
ஜூலை 15,2009,17:44 IST
வெலிங்டன் : நியூசிலாந்தின் தென்மேற்கு கடற்கரைப்பகுதியில் இன்று கடும் நிலநடுக்கம் ஏற்பட்டது. ரிக்டர் அளவுகோலில் 7.8 ஆக பதிவாகியிருந்த இந்த நிலநடுக்கம் காரணமாக சுனாமி எச்சரிக்கை விடப்பட்டுள்ளதால் அங்கு பெரும் பரபரப்பு நிலவுகிறது. இந்த நிலநடுக்கம், நியூசிலாந்தின் தெற்குபகுதியில், இன்வெர்கார்கில் பகுதிக்கு மேற்கே சுமார் 160 கிலோமீட்டர் தொலைவில் மையம் கொண்டிருந்தது. சுனாமி எச்சரிக்கை காரணமாக கடலோர பகுதிகளில் வசிக்கும் மக்கள் பாதுகாப்பான இடங்களுக்கு இடமாற்றம் செய்யப்பட்டுள்ளனர்.
http://www.dinamalar.com/latestnews.asp#20154

In response to:Another Earthquake Warning

2009-03-18T03:28:45+01:00

2009 Earthquake Warnings with Magnitude 6 and higher

1) 26th March 2009 thru 1st April 2009

2) 22th July 2009 thru 28th July 2009

by Hans Lehner, President ISQP / ISQR

Neuhaus, 03.07.2009/HL

http://www.rqm.ch/earthquake_warnings_with_magnitu1.htm

Because there are hundreds of small and medium sized earthquakes worldwide that cause no, or little damage, the main attention is on the earthquakes of magnitude 5 or more, because the risk of injury to persons and damage to property from magnitude 5 increases greatly. For the period, 26th March thru 1st April and 22nd July thru 28th July, we expect earthquakes of magnitude 6 and higher.

Thanks to the discovery of the Supernovae energy and the new theory of gravitation, according to Oliver Crane, the new space quanta physics can calculate data and time periods in which strong earthquakes of magnitude 5 and more can be triggered by cosmic and planetary constellations. Thereby, also the rotation of the earth and the resulting centrifugal forces play a much more important role than was known up to now from physics at school.

1) On the 26th March 2009 is a new moon. That means, the sun-new moon-earth are in a line/axis and, on the 27th March 2009, the planet Venus (with a diameter of 12103 km), is also on this common line/axis. That implies that the cosmic, mechanical gravitation pressure, or Lehneronspressure, is greatly weakened by this celestial body (impact cloud) and the centrifugal forces, caused by the rotation of the earth, can lift the crust of the earth in the impact cloud zones by up to 12 meters. Thus, in the seismic active regions, strong earthquakes of the magnitude 5 and more are triggered within 1-6 days. The regions most endangered around the globe at this time of year are in the equatorial zone (for example Indonesia, Singapore, Sumatra, Central Africa, Central America, Peru, etc.).

2) On the 22nd July 2009, we will experience a total eclipse of the sun for a period of more than 6 minutes.

Thus, there is a great danger of an earthquake of magnitude 6 and more during 1-6 days after this event. The effect is comparable with the total eclipse of the sun from the 11th August 1999 in Turkey, where, on the 17th August 1999 (6 days after the eclipse of the sun) an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 cost many human lives.

Also refer to: Earthquake on the 08.17.1999 in the Turkey (Izmit region)

http://www.rqm.ch/ebbe_und_flut_durch_mondanziehun.htm

Endangered regions from 22nd July thru 28th July 2009

The most endangered regions are all in the umbra area (impact cloud) of the total eclipse of the sun from 22nd July 2009. They are:

South East Nepal, Northern Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Northern Myanmar, Tibet.

CHINA: The megacities Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Hangzhou and Shanghai.

In the Chinese megacities, millions of people are in danger.

Also refer to:

Course of the total eclipse of the sun on 07.22.2009 with Google Earth
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://www.calsky.com/kml/eclipsemap.kmz%3fobs=54816630396908%26tdt=2455034

Eclipse of the sun from 08.01.2008 in China with 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5-6.2

between 08.01. – 08.07.2008

http://www.rqm.ch/erdbeben1.htm

Latest Earthquakes M5.0+ in the World - Past 7 days

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2009-03-13T10:17:02+01:00

The plate tectonic NOT makes the earthquakes.
The moon makes the earthquakes as raising the earth crust.
See more than 800 world earthquake predictions who happened.
There will be an strong earthquake in Costa Rica on the 28th of March 2009.
YouTube: BOYKOILIEV2008

In response to:Success in Prediction

2009-03-13T10:15:56+01:00

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2008-12-28T13:55:38+01:00

THREW WILL BE AN STRONG EARTHQUAKE AROUND THE WORLD AT DEC. 31, 2008 PHILIPPINE TIME my email is march1720002000@yahoo.com

In response to:Success in Prediction

2008-09-17T06:22:24+02:00

Hi DrAnanda
This reasearch that you are undertaking is great. I would like to learn on what is required to setup a lab and am very interested in learning the calculations. I am based out of bangalore, do let me know

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2008-09-11T21:57:02+02:00

I live in Karachi Pakistan Pls tell me about karachi any earthquake expected in Karachi??
Tell me or any other Pakistan City can effected from EarthQuake

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2008-09-11T08:45:00+02:00

Hello Dr.
Your Prediction Successful, 10-Sep 7.5 EarthQuake in Iran and 11-SEP 7.6 EarthQuake in Indonesia and Japan, Kindly let us know about your new prediction.

In response to:Earthquake Prediction

2008-09-10T07:25:58+02:00

are you serious,i am in islamabad pakistan capital..also will effect??

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2008-09-09T07:22:39+02:00

Thanks for Reply

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2008-09-08T10:40:27+02:00

Hello Abdul

Yes pakistan is going to get affected by earthquakes in coming days and months. The seismic movement for that area has started. just watch the blog continuously and tell it to your friends

Regards
Dr.Ananda Nichalan

nt : I have got very few facilities, if i was provided more facilities i can pinpoint locations accurately

In response to:Earthquake Warning

2008-09-08T10:36:57+02:00

Hello walrus

you will be wondering how i am predicting if you come to my area. can you imagine the size of earth, you would really wonder with the minimum devices i am predicting. my indian government is not supporting me. with the established 13000 earth stations nothing is happening in the world. have they alerted any persons or anyone in the world before. atleast are the organizations organized and getting results in web. but i am doing it for the sake of humanity. if you are interested kindly help me. i can give you more details

Regards
Dr.Ananda Nichalan
+91 9362169882